Attribution Science

=The basics= Carbon Majors are responsible for more than two thirds of human-emitted CO2, the main driver of climate change. When an extreme weather event is "caused" by climate change, you can sue the Carbon Majors for compensation. Attribution science is the science that allows to determine with what probability such an event is due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Some events are easier to attribute than others (see graphic).

=Attributing your event= Colleagues at the Oxford Environmental Change Institute and others are working on real-time attribution of events as they unfold. Check World Weather Attribution for news and whether there is some work available for an event you are looking at. For this section it is recommended to read The science of attributing extreme weather events and its potential contribution to assessing loss and damage associated with climate change impacts (ECI & University of Oxford)

=Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey= During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26–28. This resulted in extensive flooding with over 80 fatalities and large economic costs. Extrapolating these results to the 2017 event, we conclude that global warming made the precipitation about 15% (8%–19%) more intense, or equivalently made such an event three (1.5–5) times more likely. This analysis makes clear that extreme rainfall events along the Gulf Coast are on the rise. With these scientific studies it can be verified why, and how natural phenomena have intensified, and that global warming is causing it.